Recruiting is one of the most important aspects of college football. Unlike in the National Football League, college programs need to reload on a year-to-year basis, which they do so through both high school recruiting and the transfer portal.
The thing about college football recruiting is that…it’s challenging. There’s no doubt about that. Evaluating high schoolers and trying to project how successful they’ll be against superior competition is a skill that is hard to come by. In fact, the majority of ‘blue-chip recruits’ (four-stars and five-stars) end up falling short of expectations once they reach the college level. Websites such as Rivals, 247Sports, On3, and ESPN try their hand at predicting who will be a top contributor at the next level and who won’t. However, it’s clear that some positions in football are much easier to evaluate and ‘hit on’ than others.
When it comes to recruiting rankings, the star rating is the most common method of evaluating high-school prospects. Five stars typically means a player is expected to be a future first-round pick, while four-star recruits are expected to be drafted and three-star prospects are supposed to have a ceiling of being a quality college player. The problem with these rankings is that they are often wrong. Five-star recruits are supposed to be future first-round talents, yet only 58.08% of those players were drafted from 2011-20.
On the flip side, around 60% of the players who made All-Pro teams in the NFL from the years 2012-2022 were three-star recruits or lower coming out of school. Many of these future stars weren’t even ranked when they entered the college level. Some famous examples include Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and even 2025 first overall pick Cam Ward. All three of these players were under recruited coming out of high school. However, all three defied their star ratings and were drafted in the first-round of the NFL draft. These examples aren’t outliers, as 25 out of the 31 quarterbacks selected for the All-Pro team from 2012-2023 were unranked, a two-star, or a three-star recruit exiting high school.
It’s become clear that positions like quarterback are difficult to project, but that’s not the only position that has been difficult for analysts to evaluate. Both linebackers and offensive lineman ranked low in the percentage of blue-chip recruits who actually made the NFL and All-Pro teams. The reason for this? Both of those positions have a lot of intangible traits that can’t easily be evaluated. Middle linebackers need to have good instincts, which isn’t something you can measure during any drill at the combine. Same with offensive lineman, who need to have both size and a certain level of ‘feel’ to be a successful guard, tackle, or center in the NFL.
We’ve gone over some positions that are hard to project, but there are still some positions that have a higher ‘hit rate’ than you might expect. Running backs and defensive lineman are the two positions with the best percentage of blue-chip recruits who made it to the next level. Running backs might only have an average NFL career length of 2.57 years, but they’ve certainly been easier to draft than other positions, with 38 out of a possible 55 backs from 2012-23 being a former four or five-star recruit.
A similar trend can be seen with defensive linemen, as both defensive tackles and defensive ends had more former five stars qualify for the All-Pro team from 2012-23 than any other defensive position. What might explain this is the fact that defensive linemen have the tangibles that make evaluating linebackers, quarterbacks, and other positions difficult to draft. To be a good defensive lineman, you have to be fast, strong, and shifty. Those can all be measured with drills at the NFL combine and should be easier to spot on film.
The Wisconsin Badgers are no strangers to these recruiting trends, as they’ve followed this general outline perfectly. For example, all three of Melvin Gordon, Jonathan Taylor, and Braelon Allen were four-star recruits coming out of high school. All three of those players exceeded expectations and became quality NFL players. Other former Badgers including T.J. Watt and Zack Baun, both of whom were All-Pro selections in 2024, weren’t expected to be stars at the next level since both were ranked as low three-star recruits.
This evaluation process is important for the future of college football since NIL and the transfer portal has made it difficult to retain high-end recruits. Wisconsin hasn’t been overly impressive in head coach Luke Fickell’s first two seasons in Madison. That being said, Fickell and his coaching staff are making a conscious effort to put more resources and time into recruiting high-end talents at both the running back and defensive line positions. Projected starting backs Dilin Jones and Darrion Dupree are both former four-star recruits. On the defensive end side, Wisconsin flipped Jaylen Williams from Michigan last fall and also landed touted prospect Ernest Willor Jr. in the prior recruiting cycle. These players are expected to be difference makers during the upcoming 2025 season.
Inversely, Luke Fickell has targeted three-star and four-star quarterbacks that he believes fits his system and have the intangibles to succeed in the Big Ten. Fickell found a ton of success at Cincinnati with signal caller and future NFL quarterback Desmond Ridder, who was a low three-star out of high school. Both Wisconsin quarterback Carter Smith, who the Badgers flipped from Michigan, and three-star 2026 commit Ryan Hopkins from Mater Dei could be candidates to start down the line for the program.
In addition to those two quarterbacks, Fickell has made a conscious effort to find cornerbacks that have both the tangible and intangibles needed to succeed. The Wisconsin coaching staff struck gold with Xavier Lucas, before he left for Miami. They are hoping to do the same with underclassman DBs Jaimier Scott, Jahmare Washington, Cairo Skanes, and Remington Moss. Fickell’s best defensive standout during his time at Cincinnati was 2022 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year and All-Pro cornerback Sauce Gardner, who was ranked as a three-star and the 144th best cornerback in his recruiting class.
Recruiting classes are obviously crucial for the future of college football programs, but the rankings and stars behind them don’t always reflect success. For the Badgers’ sake, it will be important for their 2025 and 2026 recruits to start contributing early, both to help the team win in the Big Ten and to prove themselves as NFL-caliber players.
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